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EBRD Sees Gloom Forecast For Balkans
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development revised down its projections for the economic growth of Balkan states, with Bosnia, Serbia, Bulgaria and Croatia expected to grow by two percent or less this year due to the global financial crisis.
The whole region of South Eastern Europe, including most of the Balkan countries, is expected to post annual growth of 1.9 percent, the EBRD said, some 1.5 percentage points less then the projection made by the Bank in November.
Albania is expected to mark 4 percent instead of a projected 5 percent, the Bulgarian economy will grow by 2 percent instead of 3.8 percent, Montenegro will post 3 percent instead of 5 percent while Serbia can count on only 2 pecent from the previously predicted 3 percent of economic growth.
Romania can hope for 1 percent instead of 3 percent. The projected economic growth of Macedonia is now revised from 4.7 in November to 3 percent.
According to the bank, Bosnia will be the hardest hit by the downturn, posting only 1.5 percent growth instead of the previously projected 4.5 percent. Croatia that is not counted in the same region can end up with 0 percent growth from the previously forecasted 2 percent.
A forecast for Kosovo was not included in the report.
The bank says it made this revision due to the impact of the global economic crisis that hit these countries sooner than expected. All of these states already reported serious problems including production decrease and laying off workers.
EDRD Chief Economist Erik Berglof said that all 30 countries where EBRD invests are “feeling the full impact of the global slowdown, mainly because of the region’s increased integration within the global economy.”
“The ability of these countries to withstand such a major external shock over the longer term will depend largely on the speed of the recovery of the global economy, the combined efforts of individual governments and International Financial Institutions, including the EBRD, to safeguard financial systems in the region, and the support of foreign banks to their eastern subsidiaries” Berglof concluded.
The EBRD now expects average 2009 growth of 0.1 percent in these countries, compared with a prediction of 2.5 percent based on country forecasts made in November last year.
(Reporting by Sinisa-Jakov Marusic)
Source: Balkan Insight
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Posted by editor
on Jan 28th, 2009 and filed under Banking & Finance, Business, Economy, Region.
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1 Response for “EBRD Sees Gloom Forecast For Balkans”
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This looks like good news for Albania, as they seem to have the highest projected growth for the whole Balkan region.