* A large number of candidates, mainly from the majority party, have begun a mad campaign to secure their votes. In many election zones, restaurants and bars stay open all day and people may eat and drink free for the election candidate of the zone is paying.

*One socialist candidate sent several hundred women from his election zone on a tourist trip to Turkey. According to some reports, another candidate has prepared a list of possible opposition supporters, with the intent to send them all on a free vacation trip to Ohrid or Croatia on the day of elections. This is just another device to make sure that opposition supporters will not place their vote against them.

*Even more startling are cases of candidates who, being successful businesspeople, have started to construct the roads of an entire village with private funds, in their attempt to win these elections.

These are expected to be the most expensive elections ever to be held in Albania.
 

By Gjergj Erebara

Tirana, May 18 (AENews) – Only several months ago Ukraine conducted its general elections. In those elections the Ukrainian government won again, despite it not being in favor with the international factor but also against the predictions from a great number of opinion polls, including an Exit-Poll, which was conducted with people right after they would come out of the voting centers.

It was these polls, favoring the opposition, which were used as justification for the eruption of massive protests in the streets leading up to the Orange Revolution – the overthrowing of a government accused of exaggerated corruption and continued manipulation of elections.

Last week, in Tirana, the American Democratic Institute (ADI) published the results of an opinion poll which gave the proportional advantage to the Democratic Party (DP) with 42 % of votes, against 34 % of votes for SP and 11 % which were won by the Socialist Movement for Integration (SMI).

The poll results showed that 32 % of those asked were undecided about which party they would vote for, which leaves the door open for the elections fight to continue strong. The methodology used guarantees a margin of error not greater than plus or minus 3 %, according to the drafters of the poll questions.

Poll results showed also that over 65 % of those asked view Tirana’s charismatic Mayor, Edi Rama as a positive politician, followed by former-President Rexhep Meidani, vice-chair of the DP Ms. Xhozefina Topalli and the opposition leader, Berisha. At the end of the list is ex-king Leka Zogu II, for whom most of those asked had negative opinion.

In June are expected the results of another pre-election poll, which this time is organized by Gallup International, the company well known for conducting opinion polls all over the world.

The mystifying Albanian spirit
An Albanian sociologist has always preferred to say that it is impossible for him to come up with a trustworthy opinion poll in Albania due to the fact that knowledge of our national psychology is inadequate and because Albanians have a high level of auto-censure, which makes it almost impossible to attain factual results at this time.

In Kosova, there is an anecdote which says that if you ask people one-on-one who they voted for, they will tell you they voted for Ramush Haradinaj, former Prime Minister, or Hashim Thaci, but in reality the elections were won by LDK.

In Tirana, a newspaper asked its readers in a questionnaire to indicate their preferred newspaper section. Majority responded by saying they preferred the social issues section. Bur empirical experience has shown that most Albanians like the black section of news.

The reactions from the different Albanian political parties about the results of the poll were wide-ranging. Naturaly, Berisha was the only one to gladly agree with them. SP accused ADI for being bribed to report such results, while experts from the party in power counted several technical mistakes in the poll. Smaller parties declared that they would never accept such results. Meanwhile the poll results have had their effect on the psyche of Albanians who usually have shown to want to be on the side of those who are presumably the strongest. Another reaction is that from many non-governmental organizations which have become ever more aggressive toward the government driven by the expectation that DP will come again to power.

Meanwhile, when the news came out that Gallup’s would undertake the pre-election polls, several opposition analysts hurried to criticize the coming poll results as predetermined, however, this was only a premeditated method so as to justify their denial of the poll results in case the opposition loses.

Proportional and majority poll
In reality, the poll results, at least from a mathematical point of view, could not be the same as the election results.

During the last elections conducted in 2001, the SP won 41.5 % of votes which resulted in 73 parliamentary seats, or 52 % of total seats. The DP won 36.8 % of election votes or 46 parliamentary seats (32 % of seats). The partial majority system allows for such deviations.  So, the difference, between the votes won during the general elections and the proportional seats controlled after elections, is expected to be even greater, due mainly to the fact that these elections will be have only one round and there will be no balloting. In the election zones where contesting between more than two parties will happen then a parliamentary seat could be won even with 40 % of votes, according to the new elections code.

This means that there is still a chance, theoretically, for the socialist to control the new parliament even though they may receive fewer votes in proportional numbers.

At this juncture, the poll should be viewed simply as a poll and not as a definitive forecast for the elections. The message of the poll, however, is of greater importance. The message says clearly that there are fewer people within and outside of Albania who would accept another four year mandate for the socialists. Many internationals have declared in the past, even openly, that they desire the departure of the socialists from government in favor of the return of the opposition.

Meanwhile, what the populace thinks, or what do the media and intellectuals or the international factor think, is only one side of the medal. The other side is the 100 candidates of the SP, majority of whom are high officials and rich businesspeople now investing mind-boggling sums of money to win these elections. For some of them the deputy position in the next parliament is a deal worth any price. The last socialist convention was a reminder to them all that in case Berisha comes to power many could end up in jail.

And many of these candidates will not wait upon the opinion of intellectuals or the international factor. They have already shown their aptness to respect even the so called, sovereign will of the people.

Fair Elections
For a long time now, the opposition has believed that fair elections would be enough for them to come to power. This, however, up till today, has not happened. Several international organizations are preparing to conduct careful observations especially in those elections zones where the strongest socialist candidates are running, including those zones where incumbent MP’s are running again.

Up till now, the opposition has failed in its objective to have fair elections, meaning – to protect the vote. If these elections are going to be a repetition of the way the last elections were conducted, then, all that could be expected is another Orange Revolution.